[Trissinas]

1. Can i make a suggestion - that if we're going to do whatifs, we make a point of fully specifying the POD (point of departure) We dont have to be as anal about it as the folks at Soc.history.what-if, but really, the origin matters.


I assume your POD is that in the last years of OTL byzantium, the negotiations for Byz to go RC in exchange for assistance work out. Thats probably difficult, since the westerners, IIUC, werent really ready to offer meaningful help, and the rivalries between Genoa and Venice meant there was alwasy somebody who thought the Byz E wasnt worth keeping for commercial reasons, and none of the Italians were all that concerned about religious matters. But lets handwave that away - lets say, that, through some odd set of events, the Venetian upper class is dominated by folks who REALLY do care whether the Greeks in Constantinople say Filoque (or whatever) and will offer a large fleet and lots of ducats if they make the switch. So enough force goes to Constantinople to harm, delay, Ottoman military activities, and perhaps lead to a lucky death of a key general, and to a failure of nerve on the Ottoman part, and maybe to internal troubles on the Ottoman part. Siege ends, for the moment.

What happens next? Youve now got a Byz empire, thats nominally RC, under Venetian dominance, and small.

1. Will the ordinary guy on the street really follow RC? Will there be a breakaways church of "old believers"?

2. Does Venice even want them to expand back into Anatolia? That both risks a big loss, and OTOH, if its a win, could make the BE more independent. I would say that Venice tries to hold them back.

3. How easy would a reconquista be anyway? I suspect going deep into Asia Minor will be VERY difficult. Theres always Trebizond, though

4. What happens to the Ottoman vassals in the Balkans, Serbia and Bulgaria? Depends how bad things get for the Ottomans in Asia Minor, I suspect. Genoa, say, while possibly considering trying to rival Venice in BE, may have a better shot at an alliance with Serbia or Bulgaria, and using that as a balance to BE.

5. How does the conversion of the BE effect the rest of the Orthodox world, especially Russia? I doubt they will follow suit, but this has to be demoralizing, and lessen the sense of Russia as "heir" of BE.

[grinaJanoDant]

An interesting factor is that the Byzantines spoke Greek and depended on the population of Smyrna and the surrounding areas for recruitment. These people all regarded themselves as Greeks and would be driven out in real life. If the Byzantines (who called themselves Roman, had been able to recover (or hold) that recruiting ground, the Government that emerged would probably not be substantially different than the one that had ruled for 1000 years. The elites might be nominally RC, but the masses would remain mostly Greek Orthodox. The effect on the Balkans would be significant but difficult to predict.

Curiousity: When did the Russian Orthodox church separate from the Greek and why? The answer clearly affects the course of this alt hist.

[Singukil]

The church in Denmark-Norway did make some troubles IIRC, but I think(this is not my area of expertice) it went pretty well. As for a POD, I don't know what would be the most plausible date, but I thought of some time around the destruction of OTL Byzantium, when the empire was more or less dead, and so (I guess) easier to reform. That would require some kind of crusadesque warmongering from the outside I guess. Alternatively we could go out from a successful Latin Empire, but I don't remember exactly when that empire was compared to the OE, so I'm not sure if that would work?

Sorry for being so n00b on this, I'm very interested in history but all my knowledge is from what I've read on my own really, I have no formal education except the little the state teach us...

[JosephEL]

Originally posted by Nikolai
The church in Denmark-Norway did make some troubles IIRC, but I think(this is not my area of expertice) it went pretty well. As for a POD, I don't know what would be the most plausible date, but I thought of some time around the destruction of OTL Byzantium, when the empire was more or less dead, and so (I guess) easier to reform. That would require some kind of crusadesque warmongering from the outside I guess. Alternatively we could go out from a successful Latin Empire, but I don't remember exactly when that empire was compared to the OE, so I'm not sure if that would work? That was around 1250. Another interesting POD, but thats so early, its really going to be impossible to say whats happened in the 17th c. Too many butterfly and knock on effects, etc.



Sorry for being so n00b on this, I'm very interested in history but all my knowledge is from what I've read on my own really, I have no formal education except the little the state teach us...


Are you interested in some of the nuances of discussing historical what ifs

[PZXjoe]

Im not sure what you mean by return to the Original time line.

If you mean no further "interventions" in the conventional what if, that happens immediately. You get one point of departure, on what day, that sets the butterflies flapping, and thats it.

If you mean when does the ATL start to look like OTL again, I dont think it necessarly ever has to. SOME PODs are such as to be equilibrated (in SOME respects) - making country X stronger has a tendency to lead to balancing coalitions against country X, for example. Or making more people (given food production constraints) just leads to hunger, and brings things back to OTL. But some good PODS can really set things rolling so that the ATL diverges completely from OTL. Usually serious discussion of such a TL has to end well before the present, because it diverges so far, it becomes impossible to intelligently say anymore what might have been, even speculatively.

[myhackingtosh_ws]

I agree with lotm, standard what-if scenarios have only one Point Of Divergence and that's it. They do not usually rejoin Our Time Line, at least the quality ones.

[BenWired306]

If in the XIV. the Ottomans fail to consolidate, grow, and displace the remnant Seljuk kingdoms then the East remains divided and unable to press into Ionia and the Balkans.

Now when Portugal opens the southern route to the orient and the New World is discovered Venice and Constantinople find a common cause in defeating the Turks and Mamluks to make their trade routes more profitable.

But this would not result in an RC crypto-Byzantine. I don't see how to pull that off.