General Discussion Undecided where to post - do it here. |
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Basically the election is, barring anything major, lost for McCain. If I was him, I'd move strongly to the center, basically tell off the right wing for calling Obama names (counting on people to ignore his negative ads and believing these names are worse than that), slap down Palin for the Ayers link and basically rescue his name a bit so he can continue to be one of, if not THE, most popular Senators.
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You don't get the same kind of polling density with Congressional campaigns. Up until a couple years ago, the media wasn't interested in independent polling, so you really only had your internals and the internals from the other guy that are leaked. And obviously, changing minds in an electorate that's 435 times smaller is a bit easier...
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Originally posted by DanS
In my time following and participating in campaigns, I have learned not to discount what seems unlikely. It looks bad, but the hole was dug in a mere 2 weeks and can be undone in similar time. I disagree with the notion that the hole was dug in a "mere 2 weeks." Barring McCain's Palin/Convention bounce, he has never enjoyed a lead in the polls and had been substantially behind at one point. The economic crisis coincided with a natural ebbing of McCain's convention bounce, which is giving the artificial impression that his slide is entirely attributable to it. Based on the pre-convention direction of the race, I believe he'd still be behind at this point, although perhaps not as dramatically. And congressional races can be much more volatile than a presidential race. By now, the presidential candidates have been introduced and the number of undecideds is pretty low. In contrast, congressional races have a lot more undecideds that break late, and due to less media exposure, voters don't become as familiar with the candidates until quite close to election day. |
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#16 |
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He has an october surprise in his pants. The alaska investigation anal probe will reveal Palin threatened to kill the police chief unless he fired the trooper, which will raise her stock among horny men looking for an aggressive woman. McCain unfortunately is going to have to play the race card and say Obama is his lovechild with Starr Jones and then run ads saying 'Who's Your Daddy Now Barack,' which will appeal to enough UVA frat kids to turn Virginia red
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I tend to agree that, barring an incredibly major development, McCain will not turn the tide in this election. That said, if I were really gonna make a go at it:
1) Stop the character attacks. They're going to raise his negatives more than they hurt Obama's numbers. I also agree that he should turn on the GoPers going for the nasty ads. It will boost his "maverick reformer" cred. 2) Reformulate the economic policies and launch an ad campaign with specific examples of how he plans to reform and regulate Wall Street. 3) Stop playing up the foreign policy angle. It's the economy, stupid. Voters don't care right now how many obscure foreign hot spots you've visited. 4) Take a page from Obama's book: fight on the issues. And do it (reasonably) truthfully. Nobody believes you (besides your base, and that doesn't help) when you say that Barack Obama wants to raise taxes, especially when he gets up right after and gives specific numbers that disprove your claim. By extension, John McCain needs to... 5) Come up with a real healthcare plan. It needs to be one that big names can actually get behind. Stop listening to the AEI. They're a bunch of morons. Of course, he should have been doing these things from the beginning, and it's probably too late to turn it around now, but at least his rep might be salvaged. People will remember this election (fair or unfair) for the negative tone set by John McCain. If he wants to do anything further politically, he needs to reverse that. |
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