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02-26-2008, 09:37 PM | #1 |
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02-26-2008, 09:40 PM | #2 |
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Most years, the first overall pick isn't that much better than the 5th pick - yet the perceived value is much greater. Perhaps it's being able to choose from the ENTIRE list, and not being limited by those ahead of you.
However, I think it's pretty clear that there's a huge risk for the top slots - teams too often rely on 'upside' instead of production. And that is where busts are born.... |
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02-26-2008, 09:50 PM | #3 |
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02-26-2008, 09:53 PM | #4 |
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02-26-2008, 09:57 PM | #6 |
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02-26-2008, 10:02 PM | #7 |
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If the first pick turns out to be a bust, it kills most team's cap for a couple of years. If the first pick turns out to be a pro bowl player, of course it's a help. It's all about the odds of hitting on that pick. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno2 Compare 1's and 2's. |
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02-26-2008, 10:02 PM | #8 |
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to me the power is, as just mentioned, by trading it. |
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02-26-2008, 10:04 PM | #10 |
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Still, I think you've got equivalent odds of hitting a solid Pro Bowl level player through the top 15 picks, while not having the ridiculous cap burden and/or bust potential. the cowboys traded up to get emmit smith, but that was only up to 17th overall (or somewhere around there) |
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02-26-2008, 10:08 PM | #12 |
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A smart team does not end up in the top 3 much and if they do they decide what is worth more to them, the player they could get (production over promise as mentioned) or the equity value of the pick to someone else.
IMO the teams that are HORRIBLE at this keep showing up in the top 5-10 year in and out. |
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02-26-2008, 10:13 PM | #13 |
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02-26-2008, 10:19 PM | #14 |
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02-27-2008, 01:03 AM | #15 |
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In most cases, I'd say it is more of a hinderance than a benefit, IMO. That is unless there is a clear cut #1 that someone would be willing to give up a lot to get. Most of the time, save a few exceptions, there isn't that one player out there.
This year looks like it is shaping up to be another one of those years where there won't be enough interest in trading up to #1 because there isn't a huge difference between #1 and say #5. |
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