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The latest IMF outlook says that Eurozone unemployment is projected to average ~ 8.3% for 2006 after averaging 8.6% in 2005. Further, it has Germany unemployment at 9.1% in 2005 and 8.7% in 2006.
What is the cause of this discrepancy? Does the IMF have old numbers? Also, the German numbers seem awful fishy. From 9.5% in December to 8.2% in April? They got rid of that scumbag chancellor, but that fast of a move seems unrealistic. |
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Couldn't find any info on their sources or methodology but I suspect they're using the ILO standards. An explanation might be that they're using the average over the year while the figures I cited are end-of-year.
BTW, first estimate of the april retail sales are in. They rose by 1.4% vs the previous month in the Eurozone and by 2.8% in Germany, and these aren't annualised numbers. The 2nd quarter may be a very good one indeed. |
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#8 |
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Originally posted by Colon™
If you suspect this is the result of people moving out of the labour market, that is not correct: employment rates have been moving up year after year in the Eurozone... And if you wonder that the employment rate crept up because the working-age population declined: it really is the result of actual job-creation. Ever since '94 the amount people that are employed has grown, again even during the sluggish years after 2000. |
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When you lower the bar enough, you'll easily jump over it. 65% employment is a pathetic goal.
What are the employment numbers now? How about employment in the private sector? In Finland, the social democratic ministry of labour has put unemployed people into "employment courses", where they'll receive no-content education and are counted as students instead of unemployed people, for 12 years now. That's what Pekka means by "redefining", and that's why unemployment statistics have turned worthless in the 21st century. |
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