[MadMark]

Chris Anderson’s ‘Long Tail’ theory has existed as an article of faith in internet media business ideology ever since that famous 2004 Wired magazine article in which he argued that low operation and inventory costs allow significant profit to be realized from the sale of small volumes of hard-to-find items to many customers, rather than large volumes of a narrow range of popular ‘hit’ items.

It became touted as the saviour for niche musics in the new digital universe.

And now turns out to be bollocks.

According to the latest hard information, 80% of digital music inventory fails to find one single buyer.

I can’t refer you directly to the study itself – it hasn’t been published yet – but the following advance intelligence comes from a presentation at a Telco “Executive Brainstorming” event early last November from Will Page, chief economist for the UK’s royalty collections agency the MCPS-PRS Alliance.

Page, together with colleague Gary Eggleton and MBlox founder Andrew Bud, has been analyzing digital music sales data gathered over 12 months from a catalogue of 13m songs.

This is the main thrust of what has been reported:

* Of the 1.23 million albums available on-line, only 173,000 were ever bought and paid for – the remaining 85% failed to sell one single copy.

* Of the 13 million individual tracks available by internet sale, only 20% managed to sell at least one copy – meaning that 80% of them, over 10 million tracks, failed to find one single buyer.

* Approximately 80% of sales revenue came 52,000 tracks – the ‘hits’ which power the industry. Not only is this a mere 0.4% of the total number of tracks available but also equates handily, if the average album holds 12 tracks, to around 4,300 CDs – which I am told was once the average title inventory for a regular old-style shop.

* Only 40 tracks sold more than 100,000 copies, and accounted for 8% of the business – in the physical world, 40 tracks could make up just 4 albums.

“I’d like to re-emphasise the importance of impartial evidence-based analysis. My work is not about trying to prove anyone wrong. I’m looking at how well their case stands up when presented with evidence.”Will Page

I haven’t seen this news getting much coverage at all so far (I wonder why?) but here is an interesting interview with Will Page and some broader comment from the New Scientist.

Happy New Year

[gomosopions]

Amazing:-P

Or, to put it another way, despite massive shifts in 'delivery systems' and 'platforms,' and the 'revolutionary' changes in the way people 'aquire' music, the world still turns on it's axis, the music buying public isn't any more discriminating than it was in the days when "How Much is that Doggie in the Window" was a top ten hit, and the music business remains much the same as it ever was: A tiny sliver of people getting stinking rich at the top (some, though not many, who also actually make music) and a vast ocean of starry-eyed dreamers too intoxicated with the idea of celebrity to notice that they're getting screwed.

Incredible. Who'd a thunk it.

Now if you'll excuse me, I've got some Teal articulation excersizes I need to get with. You can never have too much technique.