[Wheegiabe]

I don't see why it would have much effect of China doesn't participate in the sanctions.

[P3bWjm1j]

In short, no.

What might help is not giving the Iranians a bloody excuse to get them each time the occasion presents itself.

[Annevecenqp]

They would need to be sanctioned by enough countries that demand won't be picked up elsewhere.

[kavaTeexy]

Yeah, that's pretty much what I figured. So, is this just a move by the EU to look Tough On Religious Extremism (I assume it's not kissing Israeli butt, that's our disease), or is Brussels run by total dipwads? I don't really know much about the EU.

[zzquo0iR]

They work at making military confrontation more likely when both sides have less to lose economically.

[MadMark]

China has specifically said they'll take any and all Iranian oil and natural gas exports. They want those resources badly. The truth is there are tons of markets/countries which will buy it and have the money to buy it.

At a discount.

That hurts the Iranian regime.

[Starichok]

Why would you think there would be a meaningful discount?

I was reading about it a couple days ago (can't be arsed finding a link).

If the EU stops taking Iranian oil they will have limited buyers left. The Chinese will buy it but only if they get it cheap. Their recent move away from Iranian oil is seen as pressure on Tehran to agree.

[baskentt]

Because they have the Iranians "over a barrel" so to speak?

Why wouldn't the Chinese push for a better deal if they can get one?

[Drysnyaty]

Why would you think there would be a meaningful discount?

Since oil is a fungible commodity I'd expect any discount (mostly due to less competition due to sanctions or because of increased transport costs) to be in the low single digits. Yeah, that will hurt Iran slightly but not really. It will likely hurt importer nations more in the form of ever so slightly increased oil costs.

[bingookenoo]

Their (Iranian) currency is in free fall on just the talk of these actions. Surely someone thinks the pressure is real.

[Acciblyfluila]

The Chinese have the following options.
1) Don't buy Iranian.
2) Buy Iranian - up to 4 million odd barrels a day at world market price
3) Buy Iranian - up to 4 million odd barrels a day at a discount somewhere between 0% and 100%

Options 1 and 2 are economically equal to China, option 3 is economically beneficial to China compared to 1 and 2, and will be chosen even when the discount is a very small percentage assuming only economic considerations. China could say they want a bigger discount, because they know Iran has no other sellers, but Iran can equally say they won't give anything but the smallest of discount because they know it's the best deal that China will ever get for its oil. I would think that Iran would have the better position (because the fungibility of oil makes price the only real form of competition). If China saw value in the sanctions they would value the sanctions as equivalent to the discount they would steadfastly demand.

Why is Iran in a better position than China when China can go and buy oil elsewhere? What large purchaser is going to move in and fill China's quota of Iranian oil?

[MrsGoo]

I consider your second question moot, but I would be interested in seeing how India plays its hand.

It's not moot when you folks are tossing around "fungible" like a holy mantra.

[Signabeademia]

I honestly don't know why Iran can't feed itself. The country is full of very high mountains so there is probably plenty of snow melt if they could just capture it in reservoirs and move it around with aquaducts. With all that oil revenue they should be able to afford it if they properly manage things and the result would be lots more jobs (but low paying ones) and they wouldn't have to worry about importing as much food. Hell, with all the natural gas they just flair off why not build desal plants since it's all going to waste anyway?

[iioijjjkkojhbb]

A separate question of course is whether the sanctions, if they do as designed (i.e. cause economic hardship to the regime), will "work" in backing the regime away from the nuclear program.

On this I am far more skeptical. I think we can cause them pain but I don't see them giving in.

[Veveseinlep]

There is the hope that enough unrest can be stirred before the upcoming elections in Iran to cause the regime to fall. They faced pretty intense pressure during the last round of elections.

Fingers crossed.

[DoctorNiCYDEn]

A separate question of course is whether the sanctions, if they do as designed (i.e. cause economic hardship to the regime), will "work" in backing the regime away from the nuclear program.

On this I am far more skeptical. I think we can cause them pain but I don't see them giving in.

Iran supposedly just opened another new uranium enrichment facility last week and this one is under ground so as to be much harder to hit with airstrikes. Economically it's clear Iran is wasting a lot of money on its nuclear program which could be better spent on other things (like building reservoirs & aqueducts to increase it's agricultural output so it doesn't have to import so much food) but I guess the head theocrats have decided its nuclear or bust for their national security.