[fotochicaes]

This thread considers the possibility that the tragedy in Norway was deep down the latest event in the war on terrorism, i.e. in case it had state-level actors behind it. In any case, it provides highly relevant lessons for anti-terrorism because it could have been state-financed, as seen in the numerous quotes below.

The so-called "prior probability" of a Libyan connection is extremely high in Breivik's attack, as can be seen from the following timeline of events before and after the tragedy in Norway. This does not automatically imply that Gaddafi himself or any other Libyan actors are involved in any manner, but there are strong suspicions of an unknown sympathizer of Libya, operating from an unknown country, having influenced Breivik. Unless Breivik decides to spill the truth in the upcoming trial, we may never learn which countries are involved. But these news stories should be interesting by themselves.

1) March 23rd

Stratfor warned that the Libyans might avenge the NATO attacks against them by re-activating their terrorist contacts, which had been notorious in the mid-1980s.

"Today Libya finds itself once again being attacked by an opponent with an overwhelmingly powerful military that Gadhafi’s forces cannot stand up to. While Gadhafi did take responsibility for some of Libya’s past terrorist attacks and publicly renounced terrorism in 2003, this step was a purely pragmatic move on his part.
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From the late 1980s to the renunciation of terrorism in 2003, Gadhafi retained the capability to continue using terrorism as a foreign policy tool but simply chose not to. And this capability remains in his tool box.
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Now he is cornered and fearful for his very survival. Because of this, there is a very real possibility that the Libyans will employ terrorism against the members of the coalition now implementing and enforcing the no-fly zone."

Source: Libya's Terrorism Option | STRATFOR

2) March 24th and 25th

On March 24th, Norwegian fighter planes were assigned to the US North African command. On March 25th, there was some kind of revenge action where as many as one hundred Norwegian military personnel were targeted in an e-mail attack, which attempted to install a trojan horse to their computers to steal information. As we clearly see beyond any reasonable doubt, there do exist sympathizers of Libya in unknown countries, who are committed to avenging the Norwegian attacks against Libya based on the tit-for-tat principle. It is important to remember this fact when you read the rest of this post.

"A cyber attack hit military computers in Norway in late March, one day after Norwegian fighter jets bombed Libya."

Source: Norwegian Military Hit by Cyber Attack - www.esecurityplanet.com

"On March 25, about 100 military employees received an email in Norwegian that included an attachment that installed a data-stealing Trojan when opened
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'The army is regularly the target of cyber and virus attacks, but not as extensive as this,' AFP quoted INI spokeswoman Hilde Lindboe as saying.

Norway has six F-16s stationed in Crete as part of NATO's campaign against Moammar Gaddafi's forces."

Source: Norway's military computers targeted in serious attack ? The Register

3) March 26th

The possibility of sympathizers of Libya taking terrorist countermeasures against a NATO country was now raised even by the highest-level British government sources:

"Kenneth Clarke has ratcheted up government pressure to depose Colonel Gaddafi by warning that the Libyan leader could stage a Lockerbie-style attack in revenge for Britain's role in the enforcement of the UN resolution if he is left in power.

The lord chancellor told the Guardian: 'We do have one particular interest in the Maghreb, which is Lockerbie.'

'The British people have reason to remember the curse of Gaddafi – Gaddafi back in power, the old Gaddafi looking for revenge, we have a real interest in preventing that.'"

Source: Libyan crisis: Kenneth Clarke warns UK at risk of new Lockerbie | World news | The Guardian

4) May 4th

It was reported in early May that Norwegian fighter planes had made the awful misstep of bombing Gaddafi's headquarters in Tripoli. What was Stoltenberg thinking when he permitted this kind of action to happen?

"Norwegian military Communications Manager, Colonel Petter Lindqvist said he did not wish to give details about individual operations to protect the interests of pilots who carried out the mission, but told Dagbladet today, 'I can confirm that the Norwegian aircraft took part in the operations last night.'"

Source: Norway involved in Gaddafi bombing / News / The Foreigner — Norwegian News in English.

5) July 2nd

After having been bombed personally and having had his relatives killed, Gaddafi did not hesitate to refer to the headquarters and even the children of the attacking countries as legitimate military targets.

"'Retreat, you have no chance of beating this brave people,' Gaddafi said in his address broadcast on Friday.

'They can attack your homes, your offices and your families, which will become military targets just as you have transformed our offices, headquarters, houses and children into what you regards as legitimate military targets,' he said.

'If we choose, we can descend on Europe like a swarm of locusts or bees. We therefore advise you to retreat before you face catastrophe.'"

Source: Gaddafi vows to attack Europe |

6) July 8th

Gaddafi raises the possibility of avenging the sufferings of the Libyan people caused by the NATO bombings, by resorting to the principle of "eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth" after an unspecified interval.

"According to credible reports Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi vehemently threatened on Friday to send hundreds of Libyans to launch attacks in Europe in revenge for the NATO-led military campaign against him, RepublicReport New York has learned.
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'I told you it is eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth. But we will give them a chance to come to their senses', the Libyan leader said in an audio speech carried on Libyan television"

Source: Gaddafi To US-led-NATO: “I Told You It Is Eye For An Eye And Tooth For A Tooth”; “You Want Our Oil, Come Get It”–Reports | Republic Report

7) July 22nd

Only a couple of weeks after Gaddafi's warning, Breivik carried out his terrorist attack in Norway. The number of victims was so high that it was almost of the same magnitude as the Lockerbie attack. Targets were the governmental headquarters and children, which seem to be too close to Gaddafi's statement on July 2nd to be a co-incidence.

8) July 22nd

Secondary sources cite the Washington Post newspaper in their reports that Gaddafi was most likely behind the attack. They did not seem to have any facts to support this hypothesis, so they may have published their suspicions simply based on the principle of prior probability. Unfortunately, I cannot find the original Washington Post story any longer. Perhaps they removed this story after a short period for an unknown reason. In that case, did someone make an angry phone call to them, or did they simply change their mind?

"According to The Washington Post, which has close links to the CIA, the attack on Norwegian Workers' Party government was most likely carried out by the Libyan Revolution Leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.
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1. Earlier, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi warned ...
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2. Norway also contributed significantly to the Obama-led war against Libya.

10% of the NATO attacks against Libya are carried out by Norway."

Source: Whasington Post Blames Gaddafi For Norway Attack

9) July 22nd

A statement by the Libyan government spokesman denied the involvement of Gaddafi's side in the Norway tragedy. Instead, there was a cryptic remark that NATO countries were somehow responsible.

Who knows? Perhaps some rich sympathizers of Libya recruited and financed Breivik to avenge the previous bombings permitted by the Norwegian goverment, preferring a timing just before the Norwegians could repatriate their fighter planes. This type of possibility of unknown sympathizers is not in contradiction with the Libyan spokesman's specific wording.

"Asked at a press conference in Tripoli about Libya's reaction to the events in Oslo, government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said, 'We never support any acts of terrorism whatsoever.'

But he suggested NATO's policies could have prompted the attack, saying, 'NATO is planting terrorism in the hearts of many. This is unfortunate and sad.'"

Source: Norway ripped by Oslo bomb, youth camp shootings - Forbes.com

10) July 26th

Reports emerge that only a couple of days after the attack in Norway, there had been a patriotic rally in Libya, which seemed to celebrate an unspecified recent event. However, it is very telling that a central figure in the event was Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, a Libyan national hero due to his alleged involvement in the Lockerbie bomb attack, who had been jailed for several years in Europe. Can there be a bolder message from Libya than playing the Lockerbie card only a couple of days after the attack in Norway?

"The man convicted of blowing up a plane over the Scottish town of Lockerbie in 1988 has appeared at a rally broadcast by Libyan state television.
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Megrahi returned to Libya, since when he has rarely been seen in public.
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After playing the national anthem, a presenter said 'half of the world conspired against' Megrahi."

Source: BBC News - Lockerbie bomber seen on TV rally

11) July 27th

Very soon after the patriotic rally to celebrate al-Megrahi, the Libyan rebel leader announced that the earlier promise to let Gaddafi stay in Libya after stepping down had been revoked. To be more exact, this promise had already expired earlier, but for some very peculiar reason, the rebel leader made this announcement only after the attack in Norway, as if these events were connected in some way.

"Libya's rebel leader said on Wednesday that his council had offered to allow Muammar Gaddafi to stay in the country provided he step down first, but that this offer had now expired. 'This offer is no longer valid,'
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Abdel Jalil said the offer was made about a month ago through U.N. envoy Abdel Elah al-Khatib, with a two-week deadline attached. The two weeks had passed and the offer was no longer valid, he said."

Source: UPDATE 1-Rebel offer for Gaddafi to stay in Libya expired - CNBC

12) July 27th

Something very strange seems to be going on between NATO and Gaddafi. Britain expels the Libyan embassy staff loyal to Gaddafi, in order to replace them with new diplomats loyal to the rebels. This raises the question of what happened in the past few days to cause the final split between the British-backed rebels and Gaddafi's government.

"The Foreign Secretary, speaking at a press conference in London, said: 'The Prime Minister and I have decided that the United Kingdom recognises and will deal with the National Transitional Council as the sole governmental authority in Libya', Mr Hague said at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

'In line with that decision we summoned the Libyan charge d'affaires to the Foreign Office today and informed him that he and the other regime diplomats from the Kadhafi regime must leave the UK.'"

Source: Britain expels all staff from Libyan embassy in London - Telegraph

13) July 30th

NATO planes bomb Libyan television transmitters. Apparently NATO had disliked the programme which had been sent in the last few days. Does this have any connection to the patriotic rally celebrating al-Megrahi only a few days earlier?

"Nato warplanes have bombed Libyan state TV satellite transmitters in Tripoli in an attempt to stem the incitement of violence against those not loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, the military alliance has said."

Source: Nato bombs Libyan TV transmitters | World news | guardian.co.uk

14) If we take a look at Breivik's disturbed manifest, it specifically rules out attacks against children and any other civilians. If Breivik had really carried out his attack simply to market his manifest, then he would definitely have stuck to the targets specified in the manifest, rather than discrediting the manifest by acting outside of the legal parameters specified in it. This is an almost certain proof that some outsider asked Breivik to attack civilian servants and children, instead of the high-profile "traitors", as Breivik may have initially envisioned.

"Normally we will have specific objectives that are limited to striking concentrations of class A and B traitors with minimal civilian casualties."

15) July 22nd - August

The major political parties of the Western world and the Western media seem to initiate an unprecedented cover-up to hide the potential Libyan connection. Especially, they do not probe deep enough into questions about Breivik's trainers and financiers. Instead, Breivik is usually presented as a lunatic Lone Wolf terrorist, acting on his own. Typically, the real facts about Breivik's personal history are replaced with uncredible statements taken from Breivik's manifest.

[irrawnWab]

Let's move on from the hard facts to enlightened speculation.

I assume that the principal reason for the cover-up of the potential Libyan connection is the fear of a mass panic in Europe, in case the hard facts of the Norway tragedy should be exposed to the ordinary citizens. This kind of protective cover-up is exactly what should be done in these circumstances, but I wonder why do the politicians in the major European parties contradict themselves by simultaneously initiating a smear campaign against their political opponents, which is in direct contradiction of the principle of trying to silently forget the Norwegian tragedy?

The secondary reason for the cover-up may be the commitment of the major European parties to continue their bombing campaign in Libya. This war might become extremely unpopular with the Western public if it emerged that the attacks in Norway were a revenge for the tragedies caused by NATO in Libya.

There may also be a deeper reason for the cover-up. If the truth about the attacks in Norway came out, the popularity of the major European parties might dip very low in the next polls, resulting in an isolationist and nationalist turn in Europe. The major European parties seem to be obsessed about carrying out their societal projects, and may be ready to resort to extreme measures to safeguard this goal.

To conclude, it seems likely that an unknown sympathizer of Libya from an unknown country wanted Breivik to carry out his attack. However, it's hard to see how Breivik could have been manipulated in the very short time span of a couple of months into targeting children and civil servants instead of the high-profile politicians he had in mind earlier when writing his manifest. Except if a hefty reward was involved to change Breivik's mind about the primary targets.

Perhaps Breivik was an ideologically flexible wanna-be-terrorist who had been silently preparing several tailorable attack scenarios after 2005, just waiting until a suitable financier would turn up. This financier may have been given the last decision on selecting the targets based on his personal preferences.

It is true that Breivik also mentioned some political gurus in his manifest, and even made a handful of posts on many kinds of right-wing forums, but those seem to be unauthentic posts simply to support his cover story of being a right-winger. Why else would he register on a forum to make typically as few as four posts or only two comments?

It seems impossible to find even a single person who would have been personally involved in politics together with Breivik after 2004, which is an extremely unlikely situation if Breivik had really been a genuine political activist. Therefore, everything seems to suggest that Breivik had simply turned into a recruitable hitman, who was awaiting passively for customers to rent him for his upcoming one-time job. Unfortunately, the specific form and amount of his "payment" is not known. It could very well be something else than money.

Anyway, it is possible that after the decline of al-Qaeda, the War on Terror may slowly turn into a different direction, and refocus itself on rogue states who are hiring local hitmen of various ideological and selfish motivations.

[GoblinGaga]

Does the perpetrator seem like the type to take orders from Gaddaffi?

Gaddaffi is certainly looking for revenge, but that wasn't it.

[Emalodoulouts]

Unless Breivik decides to spill the truth in the upcoming trial, we may never learn which countries are involved.

He already spilled the truth in a 1500 page manifesto.