DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post - [Serious] When will China exceed the US in aggregate nominal GDP?

**Ephedrine** · 11-27-2010, 03:34 AM

Wrong.
China is just under the $7000 mark. What do you think will happen?

I think that China's much more uneven development and larger size make it unlikely to show this effect beyond perhaps a percentage point.

The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sh*t...once wages increase a lot and their sh*t isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching.

Same response as above. There are vast regions of China that remain reservoirs of dirt poor cheap labour and will remain so for at least two decades.

Bah. Why would the US decline and China accelerate? Why wouldn't China be the one that slows? South Korea and Japan slowed significantly.

In the short term (10 to 20 years) I expect the Chinese government to be better at managing their economy than the US. In the medium term (20 to 50 years) I expect demographic changes in the US to start causing first stagnation and then slight decline in PPP adjusted per capita GDP.

11-27-2010, 03:34 AM	#8
Ephedrine Join Date Dec 2005 Posts 378 Senior Member	Wrong. China is just under the $7000 mark. What do you think will happen? I think that China's much more uneven development and larger size make it unlikely to show this effect beyond perhaps a percentage point. The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sht...once wages increase a lot and their sht isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching. Same response as above. There are vast regions of China that remain reservoirs of dirt poor cheap labour and will remain so for at least two decades. Bah. Why would the US decline and China accelerate? Why wouldn't China be the one that slows? South Korea and Japan slowed significantly. In the short term (10 to 20 years) I expect the Chinese government to be better at managing their economy than the US. In the medium term (20 to 50 years) I expect demographic changes in the US to start causing first stagnation and then slight decline in PPP adjusted per capita GDP.
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