[RerRoktoido]

Initially I always bought into the example: If you try to hit a straight ball down the center of the fairway you have 1/2 a fairway on both sides as a margin of error, whereas if you start the ball at one edge and work it over you have the entire fairway as the margin of error.

Well with that theory it only works assuming the ball turns in the direction you want. Let's take a fade for example: you have zero margin of error against a pull, little to none against against a ball that stays straight, and then a good margin for the fade/slice.

For a straight ball: you have a small margin for pushes, a small margin for pulls, and a big margin for if it stays straight (albeit slightly off center...kinda of like the overcooking the fade)

So for the 2 examples you have 1 scenario where there are 3 outcomes (0%, 5%, 70%) of it staying in the fairway vs. (5%, 5%, 70%). Basically the straight ball takes the extremity out of the shot whereas with the fade you are aiming into trouble and hoping for it to come back into play. I know there are ways to minimize the risk but you get the idea I'm trying to convey.

That being said, if you are skilled enough to ensure the ball will turn over then yes it makes sense to risk it, but if you're flipping a coin on whether or not it will turn over then the straight ball in the high probability.

Edit: I randomly assigned %'s and then kept them consistent for similar shots