Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses
 

Hypothesis: Dems should hope that Obama loses, because we're up shitcreek if he wins.

Like that?

Yup. I can easily see a situation where Obama gets handed a crappy economy, can't pay for any of the stuff he wants to do, and gets booted out.

So you're looking at this as a what will win the party more votes than what is better for the country approach?

But I'd say your first argument is flawed. If it was correct, then the Dems would have been losing 5-6% of their support in all previous elections, since there was no black candidate for them to vote for (hence they have to vote based on values and issues). If Obama wins because of identity politics, then all future elections should revert to that -5-6% level. If he doesn't, then it doesn't really matter. So there is nothing to lose.

Originally posted by Lancer
The dems should hope Obama loses because the US economy might tank all the way and Obama (and therefore the dems) as a sitting pres might get some of the blame whereas if McCain gets in its all Repug blame, and you won't see a Repug in for 20+ years. The party is already losing its base some say, (as the older folks meet their maker) and a total economic tank would be around their necks for a generation after. Isn't this more of the reason why repugs should want McCain to lose?

Originally posted by Jaguar
What DanS is saying is that black voters feel marginalized in US politics, and that this helps the Democrats, even white ones, win votes. If Obama wins, they'll feel less marginalized, so the Democrats will do worse in the black vote. But that doesn't follow that they will vote republican.

Originally posted by DanS
DaShi: The RC vote lined up consistently Dem before JFK. I would be interested in hearing that the RC vote was only, say, 60/40 Dem before JFK. That would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis. It's a poor analogy. You can't compare Black to Catholics.

Originally posted by Vanguard
And they will switch to Republicans because of the natural affinity between Republican ideology and their own socio-economic situation I suppose? Socio-economic situation and values. A large minority of African-Americans are not well suited to the Dem message, but they still vote Dem. What holds them to the Dems? Identity politics.

If you could point to a survey of African-Americans that shows that the vast majority are pro-choice and very few are pro-life, for example, that would definitely be a negative against my hypothesis.

If you don't think detailing the negatives and positives of this hypothesis is a fun exercise, you can move along.

I have an open mind and would like to hear the negatives against the hypothesis.

You do me a disservice, DaShi. I was thinking about identity politics in my rather large family and why people moved from one column to the other. I'm not anti-Dem at all.

Doesn't it extend to pro-life? I have heard that it doesn't, but have never seen numbers from a survey, f.e.

Sorry, but the hypothesis is asinine.

You NEVER "hope to" lose a presidential race. Ever. Period.
The power of incumbency trumps all.

If you can't anticipate and adjust to changes in voting trends, demographics and issue splits, you're just incompetent and should get out of politics.

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
DanS, the main reason Blacks don't vote Republican is because of the overt racism of the GOP. Unless that changes, Obama's victory will not lead to more Blacks voting for the GOP. Oh come on, at worst it could only be called covert. Even if you have the occasional Congressman calling Obama "uppity" etc., that doesn't have anything to do with the party platform.

If you're talking about policies which have the incidental effect of perpetuating racial divides I'm with you, but that doesn't add up to the normal definition of "racism." Then again, IIRC from other threads you do have a pretty wacky definition of racism to begin with.

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
DanS, the main reason Blacks don't vote Republican is because of the overt racism of the GOP. Unless that changes, Obama's victory will not lead to more Blacks voting for the GOP. So prominent blacks such as Condaleeza Rice and Collin Powell are hopelessly in blind denial about their party's blatant racism?

Aw come on, DinoDoc, let's not be TOO harsh and wait to see what Che has to say about my remark. http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...ilies/wink.gif


Seriously, there is SOME truth in Che's claim about racism being a persistent element in parts of the Republican party. But I still replied the way I did, because Che was overreaching beyond what is the truth and could appear to be oversimplifying the dynamics of the Republican party and its relations with different minority groups.

Take another example - I am gay and Democrat. I personally know of gay Republicans, but I often end up beating my head against the wall in frustration in trying to understand how they reconcile the two together because of the prevelance of homophobia within the Republican party, especially in regard to the ties with the religious right voting group.

Since the 1970's the Republican party has done little to attract the black vote, and if the black vote hands Obama victory, I can't see the Republicans doing **** for recruitment.

So no, I think DanS is completely wrong about this - as long as blacks perceive the Republicans as overall hostile (did you guys look at the delegates at the Republican convention? How many members of the Congressional Black caucus are Republicans?) they won't really flock to the GOP. Just being religious and socially conservative (which blacks are) doesn't mean that they intend to vote for the GOP.

As for "identity politics", isn't expecting all evangelical christians to be Republicans also an example of identity politics? Of course it is. Its just saying that religious identity trumps ethnic identity.

If Obama wins he will certainly face some tough challenges, but I the last thing I want is four more years of irresponsible Republican presidential power grabbing.

I agree. The democrats should definitely hope McCain wins. If he realy is 4 more years of Bush like the dems try to paint him this may be a large enough shock combined with the looming economic crisis to push Repugs out of office for 20 years. It may even lead to a real left forming in the US and push the us to becoming more "European" in its foreign & social policy.

Originally posted by Lancer
The dems should hope Obama loses because the US economy might tank all the way and Obama (and therefore the dems) as a sitting pres might get some of the blame whereas if McCain gets in its all Repug blame, and you won't see a Repug in for 20+ years. The party is already losing its base some say, (as the older folks meet their maker) and a total economic tank would be around their necks for a generation after. http://www.discussworldissues.com/im...ons/icon14.gif

best reason for him losing...

What about Hispanics?