Where Have the Hurricanes Gone?
 

Don't jinx it.

Originally posted by Tingkai
Of course, nothing to do with climate change. "Based on recent research, the consensus view is that we don't expect global warming to make a difference to the frequency of hurricanes," explains Julian Heming, from the UK Meteorological Office.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4276242.stm

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Seems to be a quiet season so far. I wonder what the explanation is..? Normal yearly variation I expect. Even if climate change causes more violent weather overall, it would be silly to expect a linear increase in any given geographic region.


So far the southeastern US has been relatively quiet. Otehr places may be having a tougher year. Normal variation . ..

Originally posted by Lorizael


Are... are you saying that an insignificant statistical sample may or may not be indicative of anything? http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...milies/eek.gif That's crazy talk! THats me !!http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...ilies/wink.gif

Originally posted by Flubber
Normal yearly variation I expect. Funny, last year it was Global Warming.

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Don't jinx it. too late, but don't forget hurricane Mitch. I didn't think there were that many bad hurricanes in October. I was wrong.

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Don't jinx it.

stop making sense !

i want to use my USV that burns 25 liters per 100 km !

Berz is pwned one again. Funny, you switched the topic from hurricanes to tropical cyclones in order to "pwn" me? From your article:

By contrast, mid-latitude cyclones draw their energy mostly from pre-existing horizontal temperature gradients in the atmosphere. You pwned yourself, the contrast between these horizontal temperature gradients is less severe when the higher latiitudes are warmer. Your article supports what I said. How'd you miss
that? http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...milies/lol.gif

Originally posted by Berzerker
it seems logical the worst storms and most activity would occur during ice advances because there is a greater contrast between the higher latitudes and the equatorial region. We have 2 tornado seasons but the spring season is by far the worst. Thats because the north is still producing cold dry air and sending it down the Rockies to collide with warm moist air from the gulf. The Fall season follows the summer heat warming even the higher latitudes and the north doesn't produce the same air mass and the conflict with the warmer moist air from the Gulf is much less severe. If hurricanes distribute heat away from the equatorial latitudes toward the poles, the transition is less violent when the poles are a little warmer. After all, the "greenhouse effect" assumes a warmer Earth which also means a more uniformly warmer Earth.

I was educated in liberal California, and dont look now but I'll bet Kansas' schools are kicking their ass. I've seen some really stupid rebuttals but citing a geographic location and the actions of some politicians as your proof is about the dumbest yet. Nah, thats an overstatement...

so it looks like this is a red herring http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...milies/lol.gif

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Hurricanes/

Hurricane Formation and Decay
Hurricanes form over tropical waters (between 8° and 20° latitude) in areas of high humidity, light winds, and warm sea surface temperatures (typically 26.5°C [80°F] or greater). These conditions usually prevail in the summer and early fall months of the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and for this reason, hurricane "season" in the northern hemisphere runs from June through November.

Even when the conditions are ripe for hurricane formation at the surface, the storm may not form if the atmospheric conditions aloft (5-10 km above the surface) are not favorable. For example, around the area of 20° latitude, the air aloft is often sinking, due to the presence of the sub-tropical high—a semi-permanent high pressure system in the subtropical regions that facilitates sinking air motions (subsidence). The sinking air warms and creates a temperature inversion (an extremely stable air layer in which temperature increases with altitude, the inverse of the usual temperature profile in the lower atmosphere) known as the trade wind inversion. This warm layer is very stable, making it difficult for air currents to rise and form thunderstorms and (eventually) hurricanes. In addition, strong upper-level winds tend to decapitate developing thunderstorms by dispersing the latent heat and cutting off the storm’s source of fuel. Notice how its a northern warm trough of air that needs to weaken for hurricanes to form or move northward? Thats a temperature gradient forming when northern air masses are alot cooler than tropical air masses. when they're closer in temperature, the gradient is less and the warm stable air north of the storm track inhibits hurricane growth and strength.

And one more thing Odin, you say temperature gradients have nothing to do with hurricanes? Its a temperature gradient within the tropical disturbance that allows hurricanes to form.

Odin, I have to say you're the moron for caring so much about this that you casually toss around insults in your first post.

Get a grip. Better, get a girl.

Lorizael gets it http://www.discussworldissues.com/im...ons/icon14.gif

Berz, temperature inversions resulting from the subtropical high have NOTHING to do with LATITUDINAL temperature gradients. You are totally misunderstanding the stuff you quoted, All you posted is the fact that high pressure areas in the right places inhibit hurricane development.

Berz, temperature inversions resulting from the subtropical high have NOTHING to do with LATITUDINAL temperature gradients. You are totally misunderstanding the stuff you quoted, All you posted is the fact that high pressure areas in the right places inhibit hurricane development. According to Nasa there is a a semi-permanent inversion around the 20th latitude that may inhibit hurricanes depending on the strength of the inversion. Why? Because the inversion results in warmer air up high where hurricanes are fueled by cooler air - thats at least 2 possible gradients facing hurricanes, one more extreme than the other. The more extreme gradient, cool air mass above or in front of the hurricane, results in stronger and/or more frequent hurricanes. If the air mass is warm (inversion), the hurricane loses strength because the gradient, or change in temperature is smaller. Assuming Nasa is right, that means one of us doesn't understand what Nasa means. Since you haven't even addressed the article, I cant take your claims about my ignorance seriously. And dont try to change my argument with LATITUDINAL gradients, that was Nasa's example. Hell Odin, a hurricane cant even form without a temperature gradient and you're telling me temperature contrasts aren't involved with hurricanes?

This is a great thread. http://www.discussworldissues.com/im...ons/icon14.gif

VJ the point was and is that you fit the stereotype of an idiot from Kansas who thinks science = opinions perfectly. every post of yours is like a gigantic troll, with basic stuff so wrongly understood it's hilarious and disturbing at the same time

summary: you're trying so hard to sound smart & scientific that you have no idea what the **** you're talking about What basic stuff have I got wrong? I dont see you posting anything about "basic stuff", so your massive intellect came up with bigoted ad hominems instead?

chegitz BTW, Berz, you're trying to pull a bait and switch. High level temperate differentials have nothing to do with latitude. I never said it did. Temperature differentials are involved with hurricanes. Is that why you quoted the bigot instead of me?

Yes, ahurricane is basically a giant vortex moving war moist air up and colder air down, but the temperatue of the northern oceans has nothing to do with that. The temperature of tropical oceans is what's important, and the water in the Atlantic isn't as hot this year, for whatever reason. What happens when the colder air above aint so cold? The hurricane doesn't form or disintegrates. The hurricane needs a relatively large temperature gradient. Did you read the Nasa article I posted? It explains how a heat inversion around the 20th latitude can inhibit hurricanes because it warms the air above or in the path of the hurricane. When this inversion decreases in strength the hurricane is fueled by the increase in cooler air.

"Even when the conditions are ripe for hurricane formation at the surface, the storm may not form if the atmospheric conditions aloft (5-10 km above the surface) are not favorable. For example, around the area of 20° latitude, the air aloft is often sinking, due to the presence of the sub-tropical high—a semi-permanent high pressure system in the subtropical regions that facilitates sinking air motions (subsidence). The sinking air warms and creates a temperature inversion (an extremely stable air layer in which temperature increases with altitude, the inverse of the usual temperature profile in the lower atmosphere) known as the trade wind inversion. This warm layer is very stable, making it difficult for air currents to rise and form thunderstorms and (eventually) hurricanes."

It would be nice if y'all read that before responding.

Oceans over last 2 years have lost substantial heat content.

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
I did, but your first posting spouted some nonesense about lattitudinal temperature gradients, which is why everyone's been like, what the hell are you talking about.

I did, but your first posting spouted some nonesense about lattitudinal temperature gradients, which is why everyone's been like, what the hell are you talking about. You and Odin aint everyone, and I didn't mention latitudinal temperature gradients, the Nasa artcle you claim to have read mentions the 20th latitude as home to an inversion. Odin also mentioned latitudinal gradients, not me.

He also has a bad habit of believing every crazy hypothesis that pops up. I bet he gets his history from that Hancock guy who thinks there was a civilization around 10,000 years ago. I believe the possibility exists, but you're changing the subject. Why is that? Oh yeah, because you pwned yourself by claiming temperature contrasts have nothing to do with hurricanes when in fact they are essential to both their formation and lifespan. Mr Environmentalist here is as informed about the environment as AlGore http://www.discussworldissues.com/fo...milies/lol.gif