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**letmelogin** · 04-13-2007, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
When people speak of outcomes that could have lead to an Axis victory in WW2, it usually boils down to the three following 'mistakes' :

a) Hitler's decision of bombing British cities instead of concentrating on RAF infrastructure in August '40 ;
b) Going for Ukraine instead of Leningrad and Moscow, in the summer of '41 ;
c) failure to devote sufficient forces to the Mediterranean front.
I think that theres very little that could have plausibly led to an Axis victory in WW2. Allied victory in that war happens to be one of the most overdetermined outcomes in modern history. To the extent an axis victory is even possible, with a post-1939 POD, it requires either a UK offer for a negotiated peace BEFORE Dunkirk, well before the BoB, or things going vastly better for the Germans in Russia in summer of 1941 (and some of the more widely discussed possibilitied dont do it)

A POD well before 1939 is a much better bet, but at some point if you change things enough, it doesnt really look like what we think of as WW2.

For ex, probably the best bet for a German victory in a great power war during the 1940s, is to have the far left take power in Germany in 1919. Germany, allied WITH the USSR (despite probable tensions in the relationship) stands a pretty good chance.

04-13-2007, 11:40 PM	#6
letmelogin Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 452 Senior Member	Originally posted by Oncle Boris When people speak of outcomes that could have lead to an Axis victory in WW2, it usually boils down to the three following 'mistakes' : a) Hitler's decision of bombing British cities instead of concentrating on RAF infrastructure in August '40 ; b) Going for Ukraine instead of Leningrad and Moscow, in the summer of '41 ; c) failure to devote sufficient forces to the Mediterranean front. I think that theres very little that could have plausibly led to an Axis victory in WW2. Allied victory in that war happens to be one of the most overdetermined outcomes in modern history. To the extent an axis victory is even possible, with a post-1939 POD, it requires either a UK offer for a negotiated peace BEFORE Dunkirk, well before the BoB, or things going vastly better for the Germans in Russia in summer of 1941 (and some of the more widely discussed possibilitied dont do it) A POD well before 1939 is a much better bet, but at some point if you change things enough, it doesnt really look like what we think of as WW2. For ex, probably the best bet for a German victory in a great power war during the 1940s, is to have the far left take power in Germany in 1919. Germany, allied WITH the USSR (despite probable tensions in the relationship) stands a pretty good chance.
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