[flueftArete]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Oncle Boris


Well, Germany has got at least 1000 planes to spare, more likely 1500 - they're not invading Russia. Air power can help tremendously in protecting the coast - not blue water, granted, but the battle does not appear as one-sided as you claim it to be.

Germany has no real experience in ASW, now do they? Also they need to base them somewhere along the Spanish coast, and they dont have any decent bases in Spain, they have to set them up WHILE the blockade is underway.

But yes, not doing a war against the USSR is a big plus for Germany, at least in the short term, and thinking only of the UK. Of course this may mean that Japan, its rear unsecured against Russia, may not attack the ABDC powers, which releases assets for the allies as well.

It also means Hitler has to sit around while the USSR rebuilds its armed forces post-purge, while they rebuild the Stalin line along the new border, and well they press him for concessions in the Balkans.


I say that with a strong and concerted Axis push, Gibraltar and Malta fall max within a month of a Spanish DOW.

But that doesnt give them command of the Med yet. They still need to win the war in Egypt and THEN push the UK out of Syria/Palestine.





Doesn't really matter - if Gibraltar is destroyed, they can use Spanish ports on the Atlantic.


None of which has the facilities Gib has. It will still take some time to get them going, and they will still be vulnerable, and at the end of a long and vulnerable supply line.


You're talking about fall '42. I'm talking about fall '40.

Excuse me, YOU were the one who mentioned the problems up through 1943. Do you want me to find the quote? The uboats werent nearly as effective in 1940, IIRC, cause there simply werent all that many of them yet, they werent using wolfpack tactics, etc, etc.

And I dont think Rommel was even in North Africa in 1940.

The UK was nowhere near having the capacity of a Torch in '40. Besides, even imagining a super-weak Spanish mobilization, they've probably got 20 divisions to spare on defending Morocco. With a bit of material help from the Germans, I'm sure they'd be fierce defenders, being seasoned soldiers.

Youre missing the point. IF a German campaign in Spain successfully harms UK shipping, then there isnt going to be a Torch right away. The shipping that in OTL was used for Torch (both directly, and indirectly to build up the ground forces in the UK) will be used to keep UK itself supplied instead, and to offset the longer routes.


I don't buy into this. IIRC, Rommel was only getting 40% of the supplies that he was sent. With the Mediterranean under Axis control, he's probably getting twice as much, if not 3-4 times (because merchant ships can move unprotected, now that there's no submarine threat).


UK subs can operate from Haifa or Alex, if necessary. Until hes taken Alex. And to rebuild Alex, he still has to move supplies through Libyan ports. Which are still limited in capacity.

And there arent enough Merchant ships, even if they dont need escorts.

I agree that moving supplies in NA is an issue, but again, without an invasion of Russia, there's lot of half-tracks to spare. Rommel did reach Sollum while Tobruk was besieged, after all.

Tobruk doesnt add that much capacity (compared to Tripoli, IIUC) , and its a longer haul for the Italian merchies. It does ease the trucking distances some.

But adding trucks increases the need for diesel fuel, which in turn needs to be shipped by truck, adding to the importance of the ports.


Now, since you are proposing a what if, will you please provide specific dates for the time line?