[Cinzomzm]

What? Really? Are you that desperate?

[Preegovesem]

It's quite another thing whether the US should get involved, of course.
If I was the US president, I'd not. With the exception of invading North Korea,
I'd lead an isolationist foreign policy. Playing world policeman sucks. Let
the Chinese do it if they wish.

[EscaCsamas]

Ozzy's Estimates of what'll happen with Iran & the bomb:

35% - Israel bombs Iran pre-emptively to slow/stop their nuclear program.
25% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, but doesn't use it (unless attacked).
15% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, and nukes Israel.
14% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) but Iran doesn't get (or want) nukes, just power plants.
5% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, and nukes someone else (Saudi Arabia, United States, etc)
5% - The US bombs Iran pre-emptively to slow/stop their nuclear program.
1% - The US bombs, invades & occupies Iran.

[TOOGUEITEME]

I think if they got the bomb that is far and away the most likely option (though I listed a 20% chance of them getting and using the bomb, so I suppose I didn't put in enough thought to my list), but the question is would Israel sit on their hands long enough to allow them to get one? They don't really give a damn about what the world thinks of them, I doubt they'd be willing to take that chance.

[sztc38tg]

This is a fun (but hard) game. I wonder what other people would put the percentage chances at for the above scenarios (or others).

[trorseIrripsy]

interesting one...

Iran getting the nuke 50:50
if Iran gets the nuke:
Iran using the nuke other in defense 1:99
Iran using the nuke if attacked conventionally 2:98 (ie - no chance, unless attacked by superior force which could effectively threaten them, I doubt they would use it even for some regular Army/Air skirmish with Israel... they bomb them conventionally instead)
Iran using the nuke if attacked nuclearly 80:20 (20% is that the first attack will be so successfull to take all their capability out first)

The more important question is - who has the interest or money in the west to go to another war/bombing campaign?

The war machine is bleeding the taxpayers dry in the US (which was the original idea anyhow... so they do not need another war to do the same), and using more than their fair share of budgets for the rest of the western world for virtually nothing, both in Iraq and Afghanistan... in whose interest would be to repeat this with even worse consequences with a more capable/numerous enemy such as Iran?

Because there are none, and even powerful hawks in the west are not totally insane ala Hitler, the invasion will not be happening.

North Korea is far more unstable country in "perpetual" war with a close target, where they can deliver their nukes any day of the week, and do they use it? No... they also know that the day they used it, it would be the day the northern part of the peninsula would become one huge ocean filled crater... and even insane dictatorships want to continue to exist.

[Anypeny]

even Pakistan is more unstable than Iran... well they are "allies"... at the moment...

[JessicaLin]

25% - Israel bombs Iran pre-emptively to slow/stop their nuclear program.
else (Saudi Arabia, United States, etc)
20% - The US bombs Iran pre-emptively to slow/stop their nuclear program.
5% - The US bombs, invades & occupies Iran.
45% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, but doesn't use it (unless attacked).
5% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, and nukes Israel.
2% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) but Iran doesn't get (or want) nukes, just power plants.
3% - We do nothing (but ineffective sanctions) and Iran gets a nuke, and nukes someone





What I think the odds are. I'm not treating all the scenarios as exclusive.

[dosyrotsbop]

I thought Iran danger was supposed to be a big George Bush exaggeration? Didn't the MSM pundits get all hot and bothered about some CIA finding that there was no weapons program danger in Iran in 2006? Why should we be concerned? I'm sure all is fine there.

[hoarrimilsora]

How's the swine flu treating you?

[KkJvrG4d]

And you, for that matter.

[Helloheshess]

Although we could have solved this problem altogether in 1946/47, by preemptively destroying the Soviet Union when they had not the capability to respond, threatening to do the same to any unfriendly power developing a nuclear capability, and then asking if anyone had any questions for the next 75 years or so.

Was the USA really capable of that, though?

[VogsHoock]

How's the swine flu treating you?

I see that you came through....................