[highattainlet]

California called for Clinton and McCain.

[tarmpriopay]

Edwards presumably will support Obama if Obama makes any effort to gather his support

Actually I think Edwards holds his support for now. He can dangle those delegates he has if things get reaaaaaly close as the convention comes near.

[lerobudrse]

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008...orecard/#val=D
cnn says Clinton 591, Obama 476

[eEwbYjOH]

Here's CNN's current GOP delegate numbers.

McCain - 514
Romney - 177
Huckabee - 122
Paul - 11

RCP's numbers have been projected a little farther.

McCain - 530
Romney - 219
Huckabee - 151
Paul - 9

Here's the "Gold" Count, out of a total of 29 states so far (a whopping 21 from Super Tuesday).
McCain - 12 States (NH, SC, FL, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK)
Romney - 11 States (WY, MI, NV, ME, AK, CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT)
Huckabee - 6 States (IA, AL, AR, GA, TN, WV)

Of course, all these numbers don't include full delegate tallies, especially for California, so we'll see how it all turns out in the morning.

[obegeLype]

So far it is looking like Hillary 668 (193 super delegates), Obama 557 (106 super delegates). That means Hillary has a 111 delegate count lead counting the super delegates and just 26 delegates not counting the super delegates; who could switch their votes at any time they feel like it.

Obama has way out performed Hillary in caucus states (around 2:1) and this Saturday there are caucus states worth 52 delegates. Assuming the current pattern holds (a big if) then that means Hillary will only be 9 delegates ahead, including the super delegates, going into to the Virginia/Maryland/Washington DC primaries where he is heavily favored to win.

That means it will probably be Ohio and Texas who decide the Democratic nominee (assuming Wisconsin goes for Hillary as current polls show once again bringing Hillary and Obama even).

[GSgCGxsF]

Isn't that 111 delegates?

Edit: Ahh, you sneaky editor you.

[dubGucKcolo]

so if the superdelegates can change their mind in a decisive manner then this whole thing of voting is useless

[PristisoliTer]

I noticed there are big differences between the two parties delegates for each state. And its not the actual number, but their relative weight. For example: California will bring 10% of the delagates to the Dem convention, while it will only bring 7% to the Republican one.

Is this some nasty scheme to prevent factions in each party to get actual influence on nominating the presidential candidate?

Most noticable differences:
Michigan, California, Illinois, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico all have 150 % more say at the Dems.

Nevada, Samoa, Idaho, north Dakota, south Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Wyoming, Guam and Montana all have twice as much say at the Reps.

[Hrennilasi]

obama catching up
cbs : Clinton 835, Obama 748 (diff: 87)

[Optosypoeds]

Right now, minus the superdelegates, CNN is showing Clinton with only a 6-delegate lead over Obama. I can't believe my April vote may still matter...

[AALee]

Romney is a dead duck. He stands zero chance of winning and isn't even raising much in the way of funds so he's basically just spending his own money. CNN is saying he's spent at least 50 million of his own money so far. The only reason I can think of why he hasn't thrown in the towel is because he's trying to build a name for himself for some future election.

[greeferweq]

Look to see Hillary trying to expost facto change the rules so she can get delegates from Florida and Michigan. Also watch her try to claim she won the big states there for the super delegates should switch sides and support her.

I had the utmost respect for Bill Clinton but seeing him stoop to making racial comments while both he and Hillary make blatantly false attempts to swiftboat Obama has pissed me off. I really hope she loses.

[PyncGyncliacy]

Probably true. Unless Obama makes some big moves over the next month then Texas will side with Billary and the race will be over.

[FjFHQLJQ]

Originally posted by Guynemer
What will Dean and the DNC ultimately do about Michigan and Florida? If delegates are reinstated, they can't just award them all to Clinton, can they? At least not in Michigan, where no one else was even on the ballot?

What should they do? Hold another primary? Send random delegates by lottery? For Michigan, I assume they'll just let a group of Dem party leaders (perhaps state senators and whatnot) vote the delegates. Kind of like a superdelegate/state delegate mix.

Florida is easier since everyone was on the ballot.

[Angelinaaiiiiiiiii]

Obama won a close one here in CT, for what that's worth (little).

-Arrian

[BoboStin]

That count is CNN's count as of an hour ago (whether you got it from there or not, it's the same). I know they didn't allocate most of California's delegates yet (like 100 of the what, 700?)

[neotheMit]

Originally posted by Admiral


I wouldn't be so sure. Obama has the chance to win some if not all of the remaining February states. And of the March 4th states, TX, OH, RI, and VT, they'll probably split RI and VT, and Obama could use his field and money advantage to good effect in Ohio. Its possible that TX will be Clinton's only win in the next month, and that is not nearly enough for Clinton to stay strong. Exactly. If anything, Obama will spend the next month slowly pulling ahead, and then Texas will reset the race to a tie. April's race in Pennsylvania (in which I vote) could actually be the deciding one, and PA demographics plus the Clintons' close relationship with Gov. Rendell are likely to swing that into Hillary's camp.

BTW, for what it's worth: Real Clear Politics is showing Clinton with 900 total delegates, 211 of which are superdelegates; Obama with 824 delegates, 128 of which are superdelegates. That puts Obama ahead in committed delegates, 696-689. As of 16:00 GMT, anyway.

[Anypeny]

Doesn't it, ultimately, fall to the convention floor regardless? If Clinton (or Obama) comes in with a few hundred delegate lead, that won't be enough to win by him/herself anyway... and all the superdelegates mean someone up top has to decide who will more likely win the general, and more likely help the democrat cause if they do win (if they think both are equally likely to win).

[expiclefich]

Its a forgone conclusion that Super delegates will decide this nomination, either they will line up behind the candidate who has a pledged delegate lead or they will go for the other one and be said to be "over-ruling" the people.

Their are two kinds of super delegates, elected Dems in Congress + Dem Governors and DNC members.

A number of the elected Dems came out for Hillary at first but the momentum of endorsements is now with Obama. Many of these officials are publicly stating that they will vote as their districts vote so as not to piss off their constituencies. Overall I think their will be a close split in this group.

The DNC members are the larger of the two groups and as of yet I haven't heard a peep from them as too who will be endorsing. I don't know how the power structures inside the DNC work, its rumored that Dean is anti-Hillary (Obama has attracted his followers and perfected his online fund raising techniques) but the DNC could easily be saturated with Clinton loyalists who carry the day.

So in conclusion it is the DNC members who will REALLY decide this and we have no idea how this group will decide.

[Nutpoode]

Originally posted by MarkG
hmmmm so Obama is hoping for Ohio and Texas to vote for a black guy.....
...like Alabama and Georgia