[gogoleanylinkfo]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
The surge seems to going pretty well so far. Yes! Victory is at hand!

The insurgents are weak. They shall soon be defeated!

[xjNo4zvD]

Originally posted by Sava


Yes! Victory is at hand!

The insurgents are weak. They shall soon be defeated!

I miss Bagdad Bob.

[tramdoctorsss]

Originally posted by Ramo


There's no plan B. Why the obsession with plan B? Wasn't it widely acknowledged that this was the last best hope. Do it or else?

I suppose plan b then is else.

[Abnorttrano]

Originally posted by Ramo

Bulani's purge is definitely a good sign. But there may be problems with the nationalist forces regarding the oil deal (i.e. the Sunnis Arabs and the Sadrists), who see it as a giveaway to big oil.
But theyre not disputing the allocation of revenues then, are they? The key Sunni vs Shia issue(wrt oil) , IIUC. Odd that the Sunnis would object now, as they were part of the negotiations. The Sadrists only have 30 seats and may well lose in parliament, if the Kurds, the other Shiites, the Allawi block, and most of the Sunnis vote together.

[DEMassteers]

Originally posted by Ramo

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/orego...l=7&thispage=2

There's no plan B. The time for the surge and Plan B was about, oh, 47 months ago.

We're ****ed, plain and simple, and all we've accomplished is to degrade our combat readiness and mission capabilities.

[quack!]

MtG. There is a thread created by KH that requires your participation.

[greeferweq]

Originally posted by Dauphin
Try it twice and the odds are even, ahem. No, only 7/16

[optormtix]

Yes, but that's so obvious that nobody bothered to say it. It wasn't fear of being "pwnd" by Drake.

-Arrian

[BreeveKambmak]

Originally posted by Dauphin
MtG. There is a thread created by KH that requires your participation. The Coulter/Salma one?

[VIAGRAENLINOBARATOCAMPRAR]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Personally, I think that more troops were an almost certain method to gain at least a temporary quell in the civvy/militia/insurgent-on-civvy violence.

There are two questions:

EDIT: three! Three questions. Surprise, fear, and an almost fanatical devotion to the pope...

1) Will this reduction be accompanied by a rise in insurgent-on-US+Iraqi troops+police (will the people who had been killing Iraqi civilian turn their attention to military targets now that there's more of them)?


LOTM - I dont know if its so much a change in attention by the insurgents so much as the higher level of operations by US and Iraqi troops. But yeah, i think casualties are already up, esp among Iraqi troops.

2) Will the reduction in Baghdad be accompanied by a rise in violence elsewhere (will the people who have been killing civilians in Baghdad take to killing civilians elsewhere)?

LOTM - looks that way, esp in Diyala. Of course theres a finite number of places where sunnis and Shia live in close proximity.

3) Will the reduction in violence lead to more permanent peacefulness (by calming down a situation which had been spiralling out of control) or:

a) Will the violence simply remain low until the additional troops leave (waiting to fight another day)

b) Will the violence remain low for only a short while until the civilians/militia/insurgents figure out how to kill their neighbour even with more US troop presence?
64000 dollar question. I think its more than spiraling down, its got to involve political progress as well.

Figuring out? well the Shia dont even seem to be trying, their strategy is just laying low. Whether time is on their side of course depends on the political situation.

The Sunni OTOH are aggressively trying to keep killing. It looks like theyre using the same tried and true techniques though. Whether theyre still getting some bombers through cause the surge is a flawed strategy, or because the surge is gradually building up while they throw everything theyve got at it (like TET?) is impossible to say from here, at this time.

[Reatclaplen]

[/QUOTE] is your friend

[Alex]

I think its more than spiraling down, its got to involve political progress as well.

That much is obvious, but political progress won't go very far when a couple of thousand people are being killed every month. The question here is whether both groups have been driven so far by the other's outrages and now have such entrenched organisations of dedicated death squads, bombers etc that they will either be unable to forgive the other group for what it's done or will be unable to rein in their extremists (even if they wanted to).

[beloveds]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I think its more than spiraling down, its got to involve political progress as well.

That much is obvious, but political progress won't go very far when a couple of thousand people are being killed every month. The question here is whether both groups have been driven so far by the other's outrages and now have such entrenched organisations of dedicated death squads, bombers etc that they will either be unable to forgive the other group for what it's done or will be unable to rein in their extremists (even if they wanted to). One, I agree that getting the number of killings down is the prerequisite for political progress, which is the logic behind the surge to begin with.

I also agree that even with a decline in the number of killings, AND with political agreements among the leaders on oil, debaathification, and constitutional structure, there will STILL be people who will want to kill out of sheer revenge, and who will STILL have to be defeated by force.

Whats not clear, I guess, is how many of those there are, and how much support they will get. If a political deal and a several month period of relative quiet can cut the number eager to continue the cycle by half, lets say, that makes it easier for the Iraqi forces to deal with it with less American help.

[LeslieMoran]

Oh, and I'd like to say that even if my 3 questions do not have the answers we hope they do I am still in favour of the US putting more troops in as a stopgap until a better answer can be found. I think they have a moral responsibility to do so.

[yasmin]

**** moral responsibility.

Neither the government (incompetent and corrupt at best, infiltrated at average and participants at worst) nor the various Shiite and Sunni groups happily blowing up shoppers, pilgrims, schoolkids, hospitals and the like have shown any sense of moral responsibility.

[ViaplyVuple]

Originally posted by Dauphin


I was not going for accuracy (the 25% figure is sooooo right anyway), I was wanting to say 'odds are even'. I know you know how to combine probabilities. I was just making a little joke...

[drgshmcm]

Given the continued level of carbombings, the major uncertainties about political progress, and the general uncertainty associated with operations in Iraq its premature to say things are "going pretty well" even with the caveat "so far"

If a 50% reduction in deaths after only a couple weeks of the surge isn't enough to warrant the tepid praise that is "it's going pretty well so far", I don't know what is...