[unioneserry]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/845624.html

Main point: Iran will create several escalating actions, and a limited confrontation, that will rock the boat and prevent the US from building support for an attack, in home as well as among its local allies. Don't know if others already said it since I just read the article, but this is totally, completely and utterly ridiculous.

With USA and Israel obviously hoping and praying for any provocation or opportunity to smash Iran, Iran is going to strike first?

Siro

[antipenq]

I am with KH- this is a silly article. The US doesn't have enough diplomatic heft to create any sort of coolition that would support an attack against Iran. Once the Iranians perfect the enrichment cycle, they will have the knowledge they need for any clandestine nuclear program if that is their intention, and you can't bomb knowledge away.

The Iranians are better off just playing they game they are playing now, and this article ignores the fact that Iran has a complex internal system, and is not monolithic. If (big IF) the Russian and Chinese get sick of Iranian stalling, they could go along with slightly tougher sanctions, which would probavbly help the moderate conservatives convince Khameini to take a less confrontational stance than the Ahmadinejad government has yet taken, which would take the whole steam out of the attack Iran crowd anyways, without really hurting Irans quest for a nuke if they act after getting the knowledge.

[espenijij]

Originally posted by PLATO
I would imagine that in the event of a potential flare up that US destroyers would provide escort through the straights and that the Carriers would fly a canopy above them. Combined with Satellite survelliance on any attempts to ready fixed launchers to fire and threatening movement of mobile launchers, I think the straights will probably stay open.

When it comes to getting the oil out, the US Navy won't play. With enough portable antiship missiles and $25k speed boats you can sink just about any ship you want right up to Aircraft Carriers. It would be even faster if you tie up the carrier's planes with decoy fighter attacks first.

[luffyplayaz]

Sure, Iranians (or Irakians, or... even Russians, Chinese or English)

have no way to stop Americans from doing what they want.

Only Americans can do it.

Best regards,

[BadbarmrapBef]

Oerdin, do you have any concept of 300 US warplanes circling and looking for targets? Do you?

You had dozens of Israeli warplanes circling southern lebanon. It is extremely difficult for fighter jets and even drones to pin-point and destroy small and highly maneuverable targets.

Perhaps easier in mid sea than on land, I'll give you that.

It requires a great combination of intelligence, command and control and luck.

[Sheelldaw]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov

Do you?

You had dozens of Israeli warplanes circling southern lebanon. It is extremely difficult for fighter jets and even drones to pin-point and destroy small and highly maneuverable targets.

Perhaps easier in mid sea than on land, I'll give you that.

It requires a great combination of intelligence, command and control and luck. I think it would be most interesting to see how many "$25 speedboats" it would take to bring down a US carrier. I also would find it most interesting to calculate the damage to Iran that the US would cause if they were, in fact, able to bring down a US carrier.

[FredderiK]

I also would find it most interesting to calculate the damage to Iran that the US would cause if they were, in fact, able to bring down a US carrier. I also would find it interesting to calculate the damage the UK would do to Iran, if it kidnaps its soldiers.
I would also like to calculate the damage the US would cause to Iran if it supports and actively promotes terrorist attacks against US troops on Iraqi soil.

Oh wait....

[Suvuseh]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov

I also would find it interesting to calculate the damage the UK would do to Iran, if it kidnaps its soldiers.
I would also like to calculate the damage the US would cause to Iran if it supports and actively promotes terrorist attacks against US troops on Iraqi soil.

Oh wait.... I think there might just be a difference in destroying several billion dollars worth of harware and killing a few thousand sailors at one wack.

If not then I think we, as a nation, have some huge problems beyond what anyone thinks now.