[PilotVertolet]

With a week to go and two debates until the SC primary Ron is on a roll!

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...-getting-tight

Poll: Paul, Perry on move in SC


By Jonathan Easley - 01/13/12 10:53 AM ET
Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field in South Carolina, but his rivals are closing in fast.

Newt Gingrich is close behind the former Massachusetts governor while Ron Paul and Rick Perry have posted impressive gains over the past week, according to an American Research Group poll released on Friday.






Romney came in at 29 percent, followed by Gingrich at 25 percent, Paul at 20 percent, Perry at nine percent, Rick Santorum at seven percent and Jon Huntsman at one percent.

Paul has climbed 11 percent in the last week and Perry has gained seven percent. Santorum, who was tied for second in last week’s poll at 24 percent, plummeted into fifth place in the current poll.

Romney and Gingrich have remained steady in a week over week comparison.

Although he still trails by a significant margin, the poll is good news for Perry, who desperately needs to outperform in South Carolina. The Texas governor left New Hampshire before the primary to concentrate on the Palmetto State, where he hopes his message will resonate with the more conservative electorate.

The numbers are also positive for Paul, who is looking to broaden his base by building on momentum from a strong second place finish in New Hampshire.

Santorum, who gambled on a strong showing in New Hampshire following his surprising second place finish in Iowa, has reversed course after placing fifth in the Granite State.

The ARG poll shows there may be room for Gingrich to surge on the back of the conservative wing of South Carolina’s electorate.

The former House speaker leads among Tea Party supporters and Evangelicals, and is tied for the lead with Romney among self-identified Republicans.

[CVEGK7mV]

Where do you think Paul will finish in the S Carolina poll?
Where do we need him to finish to stay in the race? 3rd place at least?
I'm hoping for 2nd place and that is being optimistic.

[Britfunclubs]

A lot can happen in 7-8 days, especially with 2 debates in the mix, also worth mentioning are the ad campaigns. With regards to the debates, if RP can state his case in the manner that he did during his post NH address I can easily see a 2cnd place showing, just as things stand right now. Adding the weight of the ads and how they're conducted it could be even more favorable! RP's campaign is being very smart in SC IMO, non attack ads, just fact ads, plus ads that highlight his military, medical career, vets speaking for him, voting record etc.. things that aren't perceived as hostile, SC folks DO NOT like hostile ads! All the other candidates are running negative, hostile ads, except mitty.

I'll say this as a mighty BIG IF, mixed in with some wishful thinkin'. Combining those two factors, if the positive campaigning continues building his favorable %'s and the others continue to tear each other down especially mitty, RP could conceivably pull out a slim #1. I know, I know it's far fetched but crazier things have happened and no I won't be totally devastated if it doesn't happen but a #2 is entirely achievable and reasonable.

[Kinds Of Pain Meds]

i don't see how Chickenhawks like Romney & Gingrich can out-pull Paul in a pro-military state like South Carolina where military duty is normally highly valued in elected officials.

[Necedofer]

Think Positive! Nothing but 1st place! Remember, 2nd place is 1st loser.

[wllsqyuipknczx]

Of course 1st is much better than 2cnd, but what a 2cnd place showing would accomplish is (a) make it clear that it's a 2 man race, Ron vs mitty (b) thin the herd, Perry, Huntsman would surely fold and possibly either snewt or insanitorium.

[Shiplyopidomi]

I hope Ron speaks more on what life will be like under a Ron Paul presidency and how he will roll up the constitution and cram it up Obama's narrow arse sideways, to beat him.

[Turbo-ip]

Actually, I think a good accomplishment would be for him to sneak ahead of Santorum and take 3rd, which would further relegate Santorum as a 1-hit Iowa wonder. Paul made some progress in yesterday's polling, but still trails Santorum 17% to 12.5% in the realclearpolitics.com running average poll, which is probably the best tracking poll out there.

If he can grab 3rd, it would be up to you Floridians to knock Santorum out of the race on Jan 31! Paul is still only polling at 9% there.

[capeAngedlelp]

These propaganda polls aren't worth a grain of sand.

[WXQMQFIr]

These propaganda polls aren't worth a grain of sand.

You could structure an individual poll to be propaganda, but the bread and butter of the major polling organizations is the ability to accurately reflect the final outcome, so they have no incentive to skew the actual underlying sentiment of the people. And RealClearPolitics provides a daily update showing the average results over the previous four days, from four different polling organizations. So I think they are a pretty good reflection of current sentiment. Though I realize sentiment changes.

[wiweimeli]

Ron Paul Surging. Now up to 20%!!!

South Carolina

Presidential Primary Preference:
South Carolina
Likely Republican
Primary Voters Jan 11-12
2012

Gingrich 25%
Huntsman 1%
Paul 20%
Perry 9%
Romney 29%
Santorum 7%
Other 2%
Undecided 7%



Mitt Romney leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 29%. Newt Gingrich is in second place with 25% and Ron Paul is in third place with 20%.

Paul has gained the most and Rick Santorum has lost the most since the last American Research Group survey on January 4-5. In that survey, Paul was at 9% and Santorum was at 24%.

Gingrich and Romney are tied among self-identified Republicans with 29% each, followed by Paul with 18%. Paul leads among independents and Democrats with 29%, followed by Romney with 27%, Gingrich with 12%, and Rick Perry with 11%.

Gingrich leads among those likely primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party with 28%, followed by Romney with 24%, Paul with 20%, and Santorum with 11%. Romney leads with 33% among those saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, followed by Gingrich with 23%, and Paul with 21%.

Gingrich leads among evangelical Christians with 40%, followed by Perry with 15%, Romney with 13%, Santorum with 12%, and Paul with 10%. Among likely voters saying they are not evangelical Christians, Romney leads with 48% and followed by Paul with 33%.

Gingrich leads among men with 29%, followed by Paul with 23%, Romney at 18%, and Santorum with 14%. Among women, Romney leads with 38%, followed Gingrich with 22%, and Paul with 18%.



Comparison to Past Surveys:
South Carolina
Likely Republican
Primary Voters Apr
2011 Jul
2011 Oct
2011 Nov
2011 Jan 4-5
2012 Jan 11-12
2012

Bachmann 5% 13% 5% 3% ni ni
Barbour 2% ni ni ni ni ni
Cain 1% 10% 26% 10% ni ni
Daniels 1% ni ni ni ni ni
Gingrich 9% 3% 8% 33% 24% 25%
Giuliani 4% 6% ni ni ni ni
Huckabee 20% ni ni ni ni ni
Huntsman - - - 3% 2% 1%
Johnson - * - - ni ni
Karger - ni ni ni ni ni
Palin 10% 16% ni ni ni ni
Pataki - ni ni ni ni ni
Rand Paul 2% ni ni ni ni ni
Ron Paul 1% 2% 7% 8% 9% 20%
Pawlenty 2% - ni ni ni ni
Perry ni 6% 15% 8% 2% 9%
Roemer - 2% - - ni ni
Romney 18% 25% 25% 22% 31% 29%
Santorum 1% 2% 1% 1% 24% 7%
Trump 13% ni ni ni ni ni
Other/Undecided 11% 15% 13% 12% 8% 9%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pre...rimary/rep/sc/