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Saturday Night Fights: Iowa Debate First Real Gingrich-Romney Battle

By Stacy Curtin | Daily Ticker – 10 hours ago

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After a string of Republican presidential debates, Saturday night's showdown at Drake University in Iowa shaping up to be the most lively and heated of them all. And we're not just saying that because Yahoo!, along with ABC, is a co-sponsor of the event; rather, because the stakes are higher than ever for all the candidates.
With less than one month to go until primary season begins in Iowa on January 3, 2012, Newt Gingrich has surged to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney, according to a recent Gallup national poll of likely voters. Gingrich leads Romney 37% to 22%. Ron Paul trails in third with 8% of the vote, followed by Rick Perry with just 7%.
"On the debate stage Saturday night, you are going to look for the first Gringrich-Romney battle of the season," says Yahoo! Washington Bureau Chief David Chalian. "I think you are going to see these candidates come to present their closing arguments and I don't think they are going to be holding back. I think you are going to see a real effort to draw contrasts" especially between those the two front-runners. As for the other four candidates who will be in attendance — Jon Huntsman will not be there because he failed to qualify for the debate — they will be vying to insert themselves into the Gingrich-Romney showdown as much they can.
Unlike Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain, who is no longer in the running, Gingrich may not just be the "flavor of the moment," says Chalian. Gingrich seems to be resonating with Republican voters more than any other candidate this election season. (See: Republican Voters 'Optimistic' but 'Cautious' on Newt Gingrich: Peter Schweizer)
Not only does Gingrich lead Romney in the national polls, he's taken the lead in three of the four states with primaries in January, according to a new CNN/Time Magazine poll. That includes Iowa, where a handful of recent polls show Romney essentially tied for second place with Rep. Paul. And in New Hampshire, where Romney has huge support, the Gingrich has won the backing of the New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper.
What maybe be more crucial to Gingrich's lead is the fact that he is also winning voters on key issues, says Chalian. The most prominent being the economy —the cornerstone of Romney's campaign. On a national level the candidates are roughly tied, but in many states like Iowa and the critical swing state of Florida, Republican voters believe Gingrich is best suited become chief executive of the U.S. economy.
In a new ABC News/Washington Post Poll, 31% of Iowa voters trust Gingrich most to handle the economy, versus Ron Paul at 21% and Romney at 20%. Yes, Ron Paul has a lot of support in Iowa, however, "it is not yet clear if [his supporters] will show up in the middle of winter, dead of night at a caucus," says Chailan.
By all accounts, Romney should be more worried at this point about Gingrich's rise in the polls than "the flavors" who came before him. "Gingrich is a little bit more of a known factor, so there is not a lot of new information to present the public on him and it's now close to voting time," says Chalian. "[Gingrich] is surging and getting his enthusiasm at the right moment."
Be sure tune in for the debate fireworks on Saturday, December 10 at 9 pm EST/ 6 pm PST on ABC. You can also watch the live streaming debate Yahoo.com and follow David Chalian's real-time analysis.