[margoaroyo]

1) the attack was mounted from inside Afghanistan with the support and aid of the functioning Talban Government.

2) I will not call you a liar if you do not do the same to me. I was in Afghanistan a few days ago and am home on leave and will return there right after New Year’s Day. I do not stay in a hotel room but have traveled extensively around the country staying in several occasions with the local elders and other people of influence in local residences.

The place has changed since 2002.

A middle class is a grouping of people who have something to gain and something to lose. The vast majority of the Afghan population lives on a subsidence level with little or no hope of getting ahead in the long term. They typically take a very short sighted view of things. This is not a negative comment on their morals or intelligence but a rational outcome from their circumstances. They need to worry about tonight’s supper for their families not a long term look at what will be the best 5 or 10 years from now.

3)The middle ages comment is in regard to their oppressive religious society, lack of education subsidence agricultural system, poor infrastructure and extreme tribalism. Again it is an observation based on recent years on the ground and much interaction with ordinary Afghans.

I actually like the Afghan people. They have shown an exceptional ability to survive and in some cases thrive under terrible conditions. I don’t think that they are any smarter or less smarter than the vast majority of people worldwide who have not had the advantages (or disadvantages) of a formal education and good nutrition growing up.

Your references to western social customs is a straw man fallacy. A middle class is as I defined it above, not a set of western cultural practices that would never transfer to Afghan culture.

4) This is another straw man fallacy. I never sated the cause of the insurgency but stated that an indigenous insurgency has never been beaten by less than draconian force. What is needed is a planned and rational strategy that addresses all aspects of the problem. This means building schools, clinics, roads and other infrastructure, implementing micro finance programs to allow people to get started in self employment that is sustainable, load guarantees to allow big businesses to build factories in Afghanistan etc.

It will require the implementation of the rule of law where the courts cannot be bribed and bribes and corruption will not be a way of life. The incorruptibility of the true Taliban is one of their biggest appeals to the ordinary citizen.

It will require the creation of an educated population, including women. It will require the creation of the business climate with lines of credits, insurance and bonding that we take for granted in our society to facilitate business.

It will have to be done in accordance with the cultural environment that exists in Afghanistan.

It is not something that can be achieved in 18 months with another 30,000 troops. (Who incidentally will have nowhere to go as the majority of all bases are currently housing the maximum numbers of troops and support staff.)

5) The south is controlled by Taliban and they appear to be having an easy time controlling that part of the country.

By definition an indigenous insurgency is difficult to defeat. They simply have to hide their weapons and they are imposable to tell from the friendly population.

I do agree that ISI (Pakistan security forces) are a major influence in keeping the insurgency supported. Afghanistan has a valid claim on the North West Frontier Areas of Pakistan south of the Durand line and an unstable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s best interests. This is simply another example of old colonial powers drawing borders on the map without regard for the tribal and ethnic groupings affected. It happened with the Kurdish lands in Iraq and Turkey as well as all over Africa and is still causing trouble 100 years later.

A lot of what the west refers to as Taliban is simply warlords, drug traffickers, common criminals and others who are looking for their best interests with little or no regard for the country as a whole.

A major military operation to “crush” the Taliban will be counterproductive. This sort of draconian measures will simply drive more of the population to support the Taliban. It plays right into the indigenous insurgency handbook, get the opposition to commit “atrocities” (or at least what you can call atrocities) and use this as a recruitment tool. Why do you think that the Taliban gave away the fuel on those trucks in Kunduz that the Germans had bombed? They wanted a lot of civilians and better civilian children to be killed if there was an airstrike so that the population turned against the ISAF forces.

Your plan would create more Taliban than it would kill, unless you plan on killing a lot of people.

To 1) I´d like proof.
All the Talibs did was to refuse to hand over OBL and crew and that was for reason of faith (do not give a muslim in the hands of the Ghiaur).

2) Your image of a middle class is western oriented and has nothing whatever to do with any society in developing countries. There, your definition would encompass the UPPER class.

3)Again you thrive on your very own opinion, disregarding the circumstances under which the Afghans have lived for centuries and will live for some time to come.
To blame religion definitely IS a strawman. Afghans have always been open and non-restrictive towards other religions.
It was the Talibs who changed that.

And with the Talibs out, things will go back to the freedom of old.

4) You´re not in on the latest developements.
Afghans actually create militia forces to FIGHT the Talibs.
No one wants them. But no one wants foreign troops either.

Afghans consider themselves a free people, to turn them into factory slaves is absolutely against their understanding of freedom.
And what, prey, should factories in Afghanistan produce ?

Sure, schools, Hospitals are a necessity.
But they also nedd, at least at present, to be guarded.
Which would mean another vast influx of westerners into the country.

Guarding could be done by Afghans, but as the US does not trust them, they´d rather throw away millions instead of handing out coppers or take the easy way out and not built schools and hospitals in districts they deem dangerous.

And the US effort to built the great Afghan ring road consisted in shoving a bit of the dirt aside. Some help.

5) The south still has Talibs, but these are not the ones whoi were present in Afghanistan before, these are people, fleeing from government forces in Pakistan. Their objective is Pakistan, not, for at least the greatest part, Afghanistan.
And I do happen to have first hand info from there which you obviously lack.

And when I talk of Talibs I do Mean Talibs.
If you consider
Hekmatyar a warlord you´re wrong.
He gave himself into the hands of the Talibs and there´s no way out for him but the grave.
I hope to see him there very soon, I am absolutely convinced he ordered the assassination of a very good friend of mine, who COULD AND WOULD have helped to change Afghanistan into a modern society without hurting Afghan pride.

Talibs btw do never shear their beards, Afghans do. So there´s one way to tell friend from foe.
Afghans love their weapons. So if someone´s hiding his he´s easily detected.

And the reason the Talibs gave away the petrol was
a) to get the people not to report them and
b) to get the trucks empty and make them movable again.

Still, I am quite interested in what you do down there.
If you´re reporting, you seem to be stuck with second hand info.
If you´re there on developement issues you seem to go by orders and/or college knowledge.
Feel free to PM me.
I will delete the post when read or hide it from public view.

Last, I will be in the region again in early february to visit some friends on my way to India and pay respect to a dead friend.

There are btw next to no problems at present west of Karman, and if, it´s a Pashtun thing, not Talib.
So the Talib problems DO begin at the east, as from Karman (Pak) it only goes northward with the border.